Coalition opens major lead a month out from election

Victoria's Liberal-National coalition would likely unseat the Labor government if the election were held today, according to new polling.. The opposition appears poised to win enough seats to form a majority government at the November 28 contest, pollster Roy Morgan has found.. The coalition is well ahead of the pack, polling at 29.5 per cent compared to Labor's 22.5 per cent and One Nation's 22 per cent..

Some 26 per cent of voters prefer other parties, including 12.5 per cent who expressed support for the Greens and 7.5 per cent for independents.. On a two-party preferred basis, the coalition leads by 56 per cent to Labor's 44.. Polling was conducted by Roy Morgan via SMS from October 26 to 29, with more than 3600 voters canvassed across Victoria..

Despite the result, a Liberal-National coalition majority is not certain, due to the highly contested nature of many seats and the threat posed by One Nation, Roy Morgan notes.. Support for One Nation momentarily rose in October following the party's Melbourne campaign launch on October 3 but has fallen to pre-launch levels in recent weeks.. Looking at a three-party preferred result, Labor leads with 43 per cent, ahead of the coalition at 33 per cent and One Nation at 24..

This is largely due to preferences flowing to Labor from supporters of the Greens, independent candidates and other parties.. With the coalition the clear favourite on a two-party preferred basis, Premier Ben Carroll faces a difficult battle as Victorians go to the polls.. With concern growing among Victorians about the risk of political violence in the lead-up to the election following the attack on federal MP Helen Haines outside her Wangaratta electorate office, the state's election chief has assured voters they should feel safe..

"No one wants to see any kind of intimidation, or worse, when it comes to our democracy," Victorian Electoral Commissioner Sven Bluemmel told AAP on Tuesday.. "(But) in the vast majority of cases, people behave really well." Mr Bluemmel said he was confident the state's democracy would not be undone by the horrific attack.  "People get their democracy sausage or go to the local bake sale at the school," he said.  "That's .... how we do democracy in Australia, and that's how I think we need to keep doing democracy."  Australian Associated Press.