AFL grand final key match ups: Brisbane Lions v Fremantle Dockers

Connolly: the grand final X-factors who will decide premiership glory

Whatever Saturday's grand final delivers in terms of spectacle, it's difficult to argue we haven't ended up with the two most worthy combatants.. Fremantle was the best team of the home-and-away season.. Brisbane is the best team of the past three years..

One is chasing the first premiership in its history, the other a place among the greatest teams of the modern era.. There's plenty at stake before we even get to the actual game.. The one meeting between the teams this season, back in round 12 at the Gabba, was a comprehensive Fremantle victory, the Dockers winning by 25 points after at one stage leading by 51..

But that result requires context.. Brisbane was in the middle of its worst spell of the season, the loss its third in succession, leaving the Lions 6-6.. They actually won the inside 50 count and had as many scoring shots as Fremantle, but butchered opportunities while the Dockers were ruthlessly efficient..

Yet the Brisbane which has emerged at the business end of this season is a very different proposition.. And perhaps the most fascinating part of Saturday's contest is around the stoppages, because it's there that both teams are capable of overwhelming opponents.. Brisbane has become one of the competition's most powerful clearance teams even without Lachie Neale, who had his one-match suspension upheld on Tuesday night after a marathon tribunal hearing..

Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage and Will Ashcroft personify toughness and class, and Sam Draper adds physical presence and drive from the ruck.. Fremantle can match that with Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw, Hayden Young and Shai Bolton, while Luke Jackson provides something different again.. There simply aren't many players like Jackson..

He can ruck, operate as an extra midfielder and become a marking forward, sometimes within the space of the same quarter.. Against Geelong in the semi-final he had eight clearances, while against Sydney in the preliminary final he matched Brodie Grundy with 28 hit-outs and kicked two goals.. Fremantle's stoppage work has been particularly damaging through September..

The Dockers generated a season-high 76 points from stoppage against Geelong, then won the clearance count 44-30 against Sydney.. In that remarkable final quarter at the SCG, they dominated clearances 12-5, inside-50s 23-6 and contested possession 49-27.. That sort of burst can decide a grand final very quickly..

But so can Brisbane's forward line.. Since Eric Hipwood returned, the Lions have become one of the competition's most efficient attacking teams.. In the five games Hipwood, Logan Morris and Oscar Allen played together heading into the preliminary final, Brisbane averaged 122 points and the trio combined for 40 goals..

And that's before considering the damage Brisbane can inflict at ground level.. Charlie Cameron remains capable of changing a game in 10 minutes.. Kai Lohmann kicked five goals against Hawthorn last weekend after not having had a touch until 16 minutes into the second term, while Cam Rayner and Zac Bailey present their own problems..

Fremantle's defence will need to be at its best.. Alex Pearce gives the Dockers a genuine key-position stopper, Luke Ryan remains an outstanding interceptor and organiser, while Heath Chapman's versatility gives Justin Longmuir some flexibility with match-ups.. At the other end, Brisbane has its own issues..

Fremantle's tall attack of Josh Treacy, Jye Amiss and Patrick Voss gives the Dockers considerable aerial strength, but its output has been less convincing during the finals.. Against Sydney, those three combined for only two goals.. Fortunately, Fremantle has plenty of other avenues..

Bolton's switch deeper into attack helped change the preliminary final.. Isaiah Dudley has emerged as a genuine threat, Michael Frederick supplies pace and Murphy Reid creativity, while Sam Switkowski's pressure remains important even when he isn't hitting the scoreboard.. That spread may be particularly significant against a Brisbane backline built around Harris Andrews' intercepting power..

The easiest way to bring Andrews into a game is to bomb repeatedly towards predictable tall targets.. Fremantle will need to lower its eyes and make Brisbane's defenders defend one-on-one rather than simply feed Andrews marking opportunities.. There's a striking contrast in how the teams have reached this point..

Fremantle was clearly the competition's most consistent side across the home-and-away season, winning 19 games and finishing on top of the ladder.. Yet September has demanded plenty of the Dockers.. They were beaten by Hawthorn in the qualifying final, responded against Geelong, then had to come from 21 points down at three-quarter time against Sydney..

Brisbane's season has been far more volatile, but the Lions have repeatedly shown an ability to absorb a bad loss and respond immediately.. And grand final day itself contains no mysteries.. This is Brisbane's fourth consecutive appearance on the final Saturday of the season..

The Lions lost narrowly to Collingwood in 2023, beat Sydney in 2024 and Geelong last year.. Victory this time would make them the first team since Hawthorn of 2013-15 to win three flags in succession.. Fremantle, meanwhile, is appearing on this stage for only the second time, its first back in 2013..

I suspect Fremantle can win more of the game statistically, particularly around clearance and territory.. But Brisbane has become extraordinarily good at surviving periods when it isn't getting things its own way, then making opponents pay brutally when momentum swings.. After watching the Lions do that repeatedly over the past three Septembers, I'm prepared to trust that experience one more time..

TIP:. Brisbane by 26 points..