Rohan Connolly: AFL finals, will Sydney defy logic after Pullman investigation

The key factors that will decide who makes the AFL grand final. Here's our tips

AFL fans have become used to grand finals proving anticlimactic blowouts over the years.. Which have often left them thankful that at least the previous week's preliminary finals delivered.. We don't want to tempt fate on another repeat, of course, but you do sense at least one of this week's play-offs for a grand final spot could give us a nailbiter..

Both games certainly have plenty to recommend them.. At the SCG, Fremantle shoots for its second-ever grand final berth.. Interestingly, last time the Dockers got there, in 2013, they also had to overcome the Swans, though that was an easier task in Perth..

Sydney, meanwhile, is on a high after its side weakened by club suspensions to several key players took dual premier Brisbane apart a week-and-a-half ago.. The Lions, though, recovered brilliantly last week, and on Saturday will play in a third straight MCG preliminary final, this time against Hawthorn, which was superb in dismantling Freo in the qualifying final, and has a golden opportunity to make the grand final for the first time since completing its premiership hat-trick 11 years ago.. Let's take a look at two cracking contests in detail..

Perhaps the most remarkable thing about Sydney's presence here is that we've almost stopped talking about who isn't playing.. The Swans' destruction of Brisbane a fortnight ago was achieved without Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner, Nick Blakey, James Jordon and Riley Bice, all suspended for the remainder of the season, and came at another considerable cost when captain Callum Mills suffered a season-ending knee injury.. Yet somehow, Sydney keeps finding answers..

Logan McDonald kicked six goals against the Lions, Charlie Curnow and Tom Papley five each, while Errol Gulden again assumed even more responsibility in a midfield suddenly short of its biggest names.. Fremantle, though, presents a very different challenge.. The Dockers beat Sydney by 38 points at Optus Stadium in Round 18, remarkably going goalless in the first half before exploding with nine goals in the last quarter..

And last week's 14-point semi-final win over Geelong looked much more like the Fremantle which won 19 home-and-away games than the nervous version humbled by Hawthorn in its qualifying final.. Luke Jackson was enormous, Andrew Brayshaw important at stoppage, Shai Bolton electric, while Josh Treacy and Patrick Voss offered far more in attack after being virtually shut out a week earlier.. That midfield battle shapes as decisive..

Caleb Serong, Brayshaw, Jackson and Hayden Young have a sizeable opportunity against a Sydney combination stripped of so much top-end talent.. But the Swans' capacity to turn limited supply into scores was brutally demonstrated against Brisbane.. Sydney has some obvious advantages..

It's at home, it has had a week off, and the confidence gained from dismantling Brisbane despite all those absences must be enormous.. But there comes a point where attrition has to matter.. Fremantle has far more of its best side available and, importantly, looked against Geelong as though it had rediscovered the harder, more composed football which carried it through the season..

Sydney has already defied logic once this finals series.. Asking it to do so again against a Fremantle side with greater midfield depth and fewer holes might just be one task too many.. TIP:.

Fremantle by six points If Hawthorn needed a reminder of precisely what confronts it on Saturday, it only has to rewind six weeks.. The Hawks went to the Gabba in Round 22 sitting third and with genuine premiership credentials.. They left having been belted by 67 points, Brisbane breaking the game apart through the middle quarters..

Lachie Neale had 35 disposals, Will Ashcroft 39 and Kai Lohmann kicked five goals.. Hawthorn was simply overwhelmed around the contest and by Brisbane's pressure.. Which makes this preliminary final fascinating, because what we saw from Hawthorn against Fremantle in its qualifying final was almost the exact opposite..

The Hawks' pressure was ferocious, their work without the ball outstanding, and they held the minor premier to a solitary first-half goal.. They've also had the week off, while Brisbane has had to rebound from its qualifying-final thrashing by Sydney then account for Adelaide.. But the Lions are attempting to reach a fourth consecutive grand final and win a third straight premiership..

That experience counts for plenty now, particularly when it comes with a midfield containing Neale, Josh Dunkley, Will Ashcroft and Hugh McCluggage.. Hawthorn needs Jai Newcombe and Will Day at their most influential and Lloyd Meek to prevent Brisbane again dictating terms around stoppage.. The Hawks certainly have enough forward variety through Jack Gunston, Nick Watson, Dylan Moore, Jack Ginnivan, Mitch Lewis and Mabior Chol to trouble the Lions..

At the other end, Tom Barrass, Josh Battle and James Sicily face a Brisbane forward mix dangerous largely because of its unpredictability.. Charlie Cameron, Lohmann, Cam Rayner, Logan Morris and Eric Hipwood all offer something different.. Hawthorn has already shown this September it can absorb enormous pressure and dish plenty out itself..

But the Round 22 meeting is difficult to dismiss completely.. Brisbane exposed the Hawks in the area of the game which matters most in finals, and its big-game experience remains a considerable weapon.. Hawthorn is good enough to make this vastly closer than last time..

But Brisbane has been here too often, and succeeded too often, to tip against lightly.. TIP:. Brisbane by 10 points.